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Use of tree-rings to derive the impacts of predicted climate change on landslide reactivations in the French Alps
Presented by Dr. Christophe CORONA on 15 May 2013 from 18:00 to 21:00
Type: Poster Presentation
Session: Poster Session + Reception
Board #: 60
Past activity on seven landslides of the Barcelonnette valley (French Alps) was reconstructed from 759 conifers (3036 cores). Based on 1298 growth anomalies, we identify 61 landslide phases since 1890. Logistic regressions using monthly rainfall data and temperature anomalies indicate that landslides used to occur after wet winters with subsequent positive temperature anomalies in spring, and thereby point to the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide triggering. Since 1990, however, landslide activity shows an excessive and unprecedented increase in activity which is favoured by positive spring temperature anomalies. This evolution suggests a shift from snowmelt induced landslides to events controlled by spring temperatures. In addition, statistically downscaled climate projections for the study region, based on the SRES A1B scenario, point to a further increase of warm spring anomalies for 2050–2100, and thereby suggest that spring landslides could become even more important toward the end of the 21st century.