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Corroboration of modeled and tree-ring reconstructed burn probability, New Mexico, USA.
Presented by Dr. Ellis MARGOLIS on 15 May 2013 from 18:00 to 21:00
Type: Poster Presentation
Session: Poster Session + Reception
Board #: 17
Fire scars in tree rings are commonly used to reconstruct fire frequency, but reconstructing spatial variability of fire regimes can be challenging. Spatially explicit fire models provide a great new opportunity to study fire at landscape scales, but can rarely be tested against real fires. In this study, I corroborate tree-ring reconstructed and modeled conditional burn probability for a 30,000 ha mesa landscape. FlamMap modeled conditional burn probability derived from 1000 simulated fires indicates distinct areas with high and low burn probability, which are primarily a function of prevailing wind direction and topography. Reconstructed historical (1601 – 1899) burn probability derived from 112 fire-scarred trees at 7 gridded sites remarkably reproduced similar spatial patterns of high and low fire occurrence. Point-based estimates of modeled and tree-ring reconstructed burn probability are positively correlated (r = 0.71). The results indicate the potential for fire scars to provide information about spatial variability of fire regimes within large landscapes.